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The White House Pivot: A New American Calculus for the War in Ukraine

The Mirage of Peace in Gaza's Second Act

Saturday, 18 October 2025 19:10

Abstract

A high-stakes meeting between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy concluded with a definitive shift in Washington’s approach to the conflict, moving away from supplying long-range offensive weaponry and towards an immediate, frozen peace. President Trump’s refusal to commit to providing Tomahawk cruise missiles, coupled with his public call for both Kyiv and Moscow to 'declare victory' at the current battle lines, followed a crucial phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin and has fundamentally altered the diplomatic landscape of the three-and-a-half-year war.

Historical Context

Recent Findings

The White House Summit and the Policy Pivot

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in Washington on Friday, 17 October 20252,5,7, for a meeting with US President Donald Trump, a visit hastily arranged amid growing speculation over a potential new tranche of American military aid7. The central focus of the talks was Kyiv’s urgent request for the long-range Tomahawk cruise missile system9,12. However, the outcome of the White House summit signalled a dramatic and immediate pivot in American policy, shifting the emphasis from military support designed to alter the battlefield status quo to an immediate, brokered peace7,14.

Following the meeting, President Trump publicly cooled on the prospect of supplying the Tomahawk missiles5,14. He told journalists that he hoped to secure peace with Russia first, stating, “Hopefully they won’t need it”2,5. The American President also expressed a reluctance to deplete the United States’ own arsenal, noting, “We want Tomahawks, also. We don’t want to be giving away things that we need to protect our country”5,7. The Ukrainian leader, who wore a dark suit for his third meeting with Mr Trump since the US President’s return to power2, left the White House without the commitment he had sought for the powerful long-range weapons7.

The most significant policy shift came in President Trump’s subsequent public statements, which urged an immediate cessation of hostilities5. He implored both Ukraine and Russia to “stop the war immediately”5. In a post on his Truth Social platform, the President elaborated on his proposal, stating that the combatants should “stop where they are” and “Let both claim Victory, let History decide!”3,5. This proposal effectively called for a freezing of the conflict along the current battle lines, which would necessitate Ukraine conceding territory currently under Russian occupation5,10. Russia currently controls approximately 20 per cent of Ukrainian territory, including the eastern Donbas region10. Mr Trump’s call for a deal was framed by the sentiment that “Enough blood has been shed, with property lines being defined by War and Guts”3,16.

The Long-Range Missile Dilemma

The Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM) is a long-range, subsonic cruise missile, first introduced in the 1980s11,12. Manufactured by American firm Raytheon13, the missile is propelled by a jet engine and guided by a suite of navigation aids, including GPS12,13. Its operational range is a critical factor, stretching to approximately 1,500 miles (2,400 kilometres) for some variants11,18. This range is vastly superior to Ukraine’s existing deep-strike capabilities, such as the US-supplied Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), which has a range of only about 186 to 300 miles (300 kilometres)11,13,18. The Tomahawk’s design allows it to fly at low altitudes, making it difficult for Russian radar systems, including the S-400, to detect and intercept12,13.

Kyiv’s strategic rationale for acquiring the Tomahawks was to gain the ability to strike high-value Russian targets deep within its territory, far from the front lines12,15. Potential targets included drone factories, oil depots, command centres, and critical logistics hubs12,15. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha suggested that such a display of strength could “truly create momentum for peace” by increasing the costs of the war for Moscow5,12. The missile, which carries a 1,000lb (approximately 450kg) warhead12,13, would be launched from land using the Typhon launcher system, a container-based platform developed after the US withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 201912.

During the White House meeting, Mr Zelenskyy was frank about his country’s needs, stating, “We have drones. We don’t have Tomahawks. That’s why we need them”5,18. He even proposed a deal to exchange “thousands” of Ukrainian-made drones for the US missiles10,14. President Trump expressed interest in the Ukrainian drones, acknowledging that Ukraine “makes a very good drone”3,10. However, the American President ultimately deferred the decision, choosing instead to use the prospect of the missiles as leverage in his renewed diplomatic push10,14.

The Kremlin's Diplomatic Intervention

The shift in President Trump’s position on the Tomahawk missiles was immediately preceded by a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin4,9. The conversation took place on Thursday, 16 October 20257, while President Zelenskyy was already en route to the United States7. The call was reportedly initiated by the Russian leader5. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov confirmed that President Putin used the conversation to warn his American counterpart against supplying the Tomahawks5,7. Mr Ushakov stated that the Russian President conveyed that such a move would “cause substantial damage to the relationship between our countries” and would not, in any case, “change the situation on the battlefield”5,7.

This interaction marked the eighth known call between the two leaders since President Trump began his second term in January5. The timing and content of the call followed a pattern where contact with the Russian President appeared to influence Mr Trump’s stance on the war4,9. Prior to the call, Mr Trump had appeared open to the idea of providing the missiles, even suggesting he might tell Mr Putin, “if this war is not going to get settled, I’m going to send the Tomahawks”3,15. The threat of the long-range weapons had seemingly spurred the Kremlin into diplomatic action, leading to the phone call after weeks of Moscow describing the potential sale as a provocation9.

Following the conversation, President Trump described the call as “productive”16,17 and announced that he and President Putin would meet soon in Budapest, Hungary6,9. The meeting is expected to take place “within two weeks”10. The choice of Budapest was attributed to the mutual affinity between the two leaders and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán10. Mr Trump indicated that the summit would likely be a “bilateral” meeting, not a trilateral one including Mr Zelenskyy, citing the “tremendous bad blood” between the Russian and Ukrainian leaders10,17. The announcement of a new summit, a diplomatic win for the Russian President, was seen by critics as a tactic by Moscow to delay a resolution and buy time for its ongoing military operations6,9.

A Ceasefire on the Battle Line

The American President’s proposal for both sides to “stop where they are” and “claim Victory” represents a significant departure from the long-standing Western policy of supporting Ukraine’s full territorial integrity3,5. The suggestion implies a de facto recognition of Russia’s current territorial gains, which include the four regions Moscow annexed in 202221. The proposal was framed as a humanitarian imperative to “stop the killing” and end the “vast and unsustainable sums of money spent” on the conflict5,6,10. Mr Trump also claimed that the war “would have never started” if he had been President6,10.

When questioned about the proposal, President Zelenskyy offered a cautious but notable response. He told reporters that he had not seen the social media post but conceded, “The president is right we have to stop where we are, and then to speak”8,19. This statement was interpreted as a willingness to accept a temporary ceasefire along the current front lines as a necessary precursor to substantive peace negotiations19. However, the Ukrainian President also stressed the necessity of strong security guarantees from the United States, expressing fear that without them, a ceasefire would merely allow President Putin to “come again with aggression”6.

Analysts noted that the proposal, which emerged shortly after Mr Trump’s successful brokering of a peace deal in the Gaza conflict10,14, leverages the momentum of that diplomatic achievement10. The American President’s focus is now squarely on achieving a diplomatic breakthrough in Ukraine, which he has touted as his top foreign policy goal12. The core challenge remains that while Moscow has repeatedly claimed readiness for peace negotiations, its stated position—demanding Ukraine’s withdrawal from annexed regions and an end to its NATO aspirations—remains unacceptable to Kyiv and its Western allies21.

Kyiv's Concession and European Disquiet

The outcome of the Washington meeting sent ripples of concern across European capitals, where leaders had been hoping for a firm commitment of advanced weaponry to bolster Ukraine’s position20. Following the talks, President Zelenskyy held a conference call with several European leaders, including British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen8,20. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz reportedly suggested that the meeting had not gone as the Ukrainian President had hoped20.

European leaders reaffirmed their support for Kyiv and agreed to continue working on a peace plan, as well as options to increase pressure on Moscow through sanctions and the use of frozen Russian state assets7. Prime Minister Starmer suggested coordinating with the US to shape a Ukraine peace plan, drawing inspiration from the recent Gaza proposal20. NATO Secretary General Rutte pushed for European security advisers to hold a rapid follow-up meeting over the weekend to coordinate their positions20.

For Kyiv, the deferral of the Tomahawk decision and the push for an immediate ceasefire at the current battle line presents a profound dilemma. While Mr Zelenskyy expressed a willingness to stop the fighting as a first step, the lack of a security guarantee and the prospect of a bilateral Trump-Putin summit in Budapest without Ukrainian representation creates a difficult diplomatic environment6,7,10. Ukrainian analysts expressed concern over President Trump’s apparent softened stance towards Russia and the lack of concrete military aid7. The Ukrainian President, however, maintained a degree of optimism, noting that it was positive that Mr Trump “didn’t say ‘no,’ but for today, (he) didn’t say ‘yes’” to providing the Tomahawks8,14.

Conclusion

The White House meeting on 17 October 2025 marked a definitive turning point in the international management of the Russia-Ukraine war, shifting the primary American objective from arming Kyiv for victory to brokering an immediate cessation of hostilities7,14. President Trump’s decision to withhold the Tomahawk missiles, a weapon capable of fundamentally altering the strategic balance by striking deep into Russian territory11,18, was a direct consequence of his preceding conversation with President Putin4,7. The subsequent call for both nations to ‘declare victory’ at the current battle lines, while framed as a humanitarian measure to end the bloodshed5,10, effectively endorses a freezing of the conflict that would leave Russia in control of a significant portion of Ukrainian land10. This new American calculus places the onus on Kyiv to accept a negotiated settlement based on the current military reality, rather than continuing a war of attrition with the hope of reclaiming all lost territory5,21. The upcoming bilateral summit between the American and Russian Presidents in Budapest6,10 now stands as the central diplomatic forum, sidelining Kyiv and forcing European allies to rapidly coordinate their own peace initiatives to ensure their interests are not overlooked in the pursuit of a swift, American-led deal7,20.

References

  1. Current time information in Добровеличківський район, UA.

    Provides current time information, which is not directly cited as a fact in the article.

  2. Trump suggests too soon for Tomahawk missiles in talks with Zelenskyy

    Confirms the date of the meeting (October 17, 2025), Trump's quote 'Hopefully they won't need it,' and Zelenskyy's attire.

  3. Trump says both Ukraine and Russia should declare victory after meeting with Zelenskyy: 'Let history decide!'

    Cites Trump's Truth Social post urging both sides to 'claim Victory, let History decide!' and his quote about 'Enough blood has been shed,' and his interest in the Ukrainian drone trade.

  4. With a phone call, Putin appears to change Trump's mind on Ukraine. Again.

    Supports the analysis that the Putin call influenced Trump's position and the pattern of his shifting stance on the war.

  5. Trump downplays hopes he will supply Ukraine with US missiles after meeting with Zelenskyy

    Cites Trump's quotes about not giving away weapons, urging both sides to 'stop the war immediately' at the 'battle line,' the 'Let both claim Victory' post, Putin's warning about Tomahawks damaging relations, and the fact that Putin initiated the call.

  6. Trump calls for Russia, Ukraine to 'stop where they are' - Defense News

    Cites Trump's quote about the war never starting under his leadership, the 'stop where they are' proposal, the agreement for a Trump-Putin meeting in Budapest within two weeks, and Zelenskyy's demand for US security guarantees.

  7. Ukraine, European Leaders Anxiously Eye Trump-Putin Summit After White House Meeting

    Confirms the meeting date (October 17), Zelenskyy left without a Tomahawk commitment, the Putin call was October 16 while Zelenskyy was in transit, the Tomahawk range (up to 2,500 km), the Budapest summit, Putin's warning via Ushakov, and the concern of Ukrainian analysts.

  8. Ukraine war briefing: Zelenskyy 'realistic' about chances of Tomahawk missile deal

    Cites Zelenskyy's 'realistic' comment, his quote about Trump not saying 'no' or 'yes,' his comment that 'The president is right we have to stop where we are,' and the conference call with European leaders including Sir Keir Starmer.

  9. Trump plans Putin summit on Ukraine, raising stakes for Zelensky meeting

    Confirms the Tomahawk request was central to the Zelenskyy meeting, the Putin call preceded it, and the threat of Tomahawks spurred the Kremlin into action.

  10. President Donald Trump Urges Ceasefire in Russia-Ukraine War

    Cites the figure that Russia controls 20% of Ukrainian territory, Trump's quote about 'no more gunfire, deaths, or wasteful expenditure,' the Budapest meeting being likely 'bilateral,' the reason for choosing Hungary (Orbán), and Zelenskyy's offer to trade drones.

  11. Would Tomahawk cruise missiles be a game changer for Ukraine?

    Provides the Tomahawk's operational range (994 to 1,553 miles) and compares it to ATACMS (about 186 miles).

  12. Ukraine-Russia war: Trump may give Zelenskyy Tomahawk missiles; why Putin is worried

    Details the Tomahawk's specifications (subsonic, 6m long, 1,000lb warhead, 1,500-mile range), its launch system (Typhon), Ukraine's goal (striking drone factories, oil depots), and the quote from Foreign Minister Sybiha.

  13. Could Tomahawk missiles be a game-changer for Ukraine and could they strike Moscow?

    Provides the Tomahawk's range (1,500 miles), its manufacturer (Raytheon), its guidance (GPS), its low-altitude flight path, and the comparison to Storm Shadow/ATACMS (150-200 miles).

  14. Trump urges Zelensky to talk peace with Putin, cools on sending Tomahawks

    Supports the policy shift towards brokering peace, cites Zelenskyy's comment that Russia is 'afraid' of the Tomahawks, and his quote about Trump not saying 'no' or 'yes.'

  15. Tomahawk missiles are Trump's ace card for Ukraine – Zelensky says it's time to play it

    Cites Trump's earlier threat to send Tomahawks to Putin if the war was not settled, and the strategic importance of the missiles for hitting Russian command centres and resupply routes.

  16. Trump urges Russia, Ukraine to 'stop where they are' to end conflict

    Confirms the meeting date (October 17), Trump's 'strongly suggested' deal, the 'Enough blood has been shed' quote, and his description of the Putin call as 'very productive.'

  17. Is Putin buying time before Russia-Ukraine peace deal? Donald Trump responds

    Cites Trump's quote about the 'tremendous bad blood' between the leaders and his belief that Putin wants to 'make a deal.'

  18. How Tomahawk missiles could change the war between Russia and Ukraine | CBC News

    Provides the Tomahawk's range (at least 1,600 km, up to 2,400 km), the comparison to ATACMS (300 km), and Zelenskyy's quote: 'We have drones. We don't have Tomahawks. That's why we need them.'

  19. Morning Briefing: Oct. 18, 2025 - Anadolu Ajansı

    Cites Zelenskyy's quote: 'He is right. President is right, and we have to stop where we are, and then to speak.'

  20. European leaders push for Ukraine peace plan after disappointing Washington meetings

    Details the European reaction, naming leaders (Rutte, von der Leyen, Starmer), citing German Chancellor Merz's comment about the meeting not going as hoped, and mentioning the push for a European-led peace plan and the follow-up meeting.

  21. The War in Ukraine: Situation Report, October 2025 - Second Line of Defense - SLDinfo.com

    Provides context on the war's status in Fall 2025 and cites Russia's maximalist peace demands (withdrawal from annexed regions, end to NATO aspirations).